Betting Strategy
Raceratings covers most TAB meetings throughout Australia on a daily basis and selected races from New Zealand and Hong Kong.
There have been many betting strategies discussed over a very long period of time and the RaceRatings team have a proven record using the Standard Betting Strategy, "SBS", explained below.
Our Standard Betting Strategy usually involves the top 4 rated horses in any race. We call the top 2 runners "Orange Band", as they are displayed with an orange background in our ratings console. The 3rd and 4th rated horses we call "Yellow Band" as they are displayed with a yellow background in our ratings console. There are situations where there will be more than two Orange Band or Yellow Band runners in a race. This is because some horses have exactly the same rating.
All races with a Bet Rating of Average, Good, Value, Excellent or Qualified Maiden are considered betting races. We invest on any number of horses ranked in the Orange Band or Yellow Band provided they qualify under our price guidelines. On rare occasions this may mean backing more than 4 horses in a single race where horses are equally rated and you can secure the required starting price.
All investments are for the WIN ONLY.
If the track condition is up or down graded during the day, our Form Analysts re-assess the form and adjust the Ratings accordingly. The new ratings are posted as soon as is practical. (NB: Track grades are assessed by our Form Analysts and may differ from those published by the TABS or Media)
Analysis
Each race has been assessed by our form analysts, applying strict guidelines to every runner and applying the appropriate bonuses/penalties without allowing any emotional influence which ensures that consistency is maintained across all runners.
Bet Ratings
Each race is graded using a "Bet Rating". The five Bet Ratings used are listed below:
| Average Betting Race | Our Top Rated runners will most likely be well in the market |
|---|---|
| Good Betting Race | Our Top Rated runners may provide good value |
| Excellent Betting Race | Races where in our expert opinion, the nominal early market favorite is a distinct risk and our rated runners are good value |
| Value Betting Race | Where we believe we have identified a runner or runners that may offer a good priced winner |
| Qualified Maiden Race | These are Maiden races where all runners have sufficient form to allow us to apply our analysis criteria. |
It has become very evident that the performance of the Ratings and Betting Strategies has continued to evolve since their inception with the addition of new form analysis factors and criteria now being applied and as Punters we must evolve with that in our approach and thinking. There are many ways to implement the use of the Ratings and any number of combinations of betting strategies that can be applied, the key is to take advantage of opportunities when they present themselves.
The Race Ratings team has done extensive analysis on the performance of the ratings over the last 12 months.
The findings have been enlightening.
The ORANGE BAND selections account for the majority of all winners listed on the results page. Given the Betting Strategy suggests that the Orange and Yellow Band runners be supported according to the pricing criteria; the trend has seen a marked shift towards primarily supporting the Orange Band selections. This is not to say that the Yellow Band runners do not produce winners but simply the strike rate has dropped in that area with the improved performance of the Orange Band.
This has further been “stream lined” to isolate the Top Rated Selection Only.
The data displayed in the Analysis Table link is based on the “Top Rater Only” and was broken down by State and Field Size.
Analysis TableThe areas highlighted in the “Top Raters by State and Field Size” table with No Criteria Applied are losses and closer analysis shows that backing the Top Rated Selection irrespective of Price and Field Size will return a loss of 1.7% on POT. Fields of 8-11 starters show a minor profit with a loss in the 12-15 starters group. NSW, VIC and TAS record a loss across all categories, small loss recorded in WA and NZ in fields of 12-15 starters. These are based on Tote Prices only and given the various betting options available nowadays, it is possibly slightly better than a break even scenario can be achieved.
We have found by identifying “market pockets” and applying selected manual filters the overall performance can be enhanced.
The performance of the Ratings greatly varies from State to State and by identifying and accepting this fact, we have been able to develop a series of manual filters to take advantage of these differences as is illustrated in the “Top” and “2nd Raters FILTERED by Price, State and Field Size” tables.
Analysis TableBy applying the “Market Pocket” filters, the performance of the ratings has been greatly improved both in strike rate and POT across most venues.
Analysis TableAs can be seen in the tables posted, the betting varies and it is prudent to note the increased strike rate when applying the filters especially when comparing results for NSW and VIC. Both States record a loss using the raw data however this is turned into a positive with the application of the filters. Please note the pricing filters applied to the 2nd rated runners and the impact that has on the bottom line, again stressing the value betting edge. (Each state is color coded for identification of multiple betting options)
Using the “Analysis Tables” and using QLD as an example, the Top Rated selection in fields of 8-11 starters will be backed if its price is in the $2.00-$4.00 range Best Tote before jump time, in fields of 12-15 starters, the acceptable price is $2.00-$6.00. You will note that the 2nd rated runner will NOT be considered in fields of 8-11 starters but in fields of 12-15 starters, the 2nd rated runner will be backed if its price is in the $10.00-$16.00 range.
The filter can be applied in seconds and a decision made based on the criteria.
This requires monitoring throughout the day and for those that do not have the time or inclination to process the data using these criteria, you can support just the top rated runners each day, perhaps filtering by field size and/or bet rating. Betting in races listed as Good or Value betting races will limit your daily exposure with very good results being recorded within these classifications.
Listed below are the results for the period 1st Nov 2008 to 23rd March 2009 Betting Top Rated Selection Only at all venues using the SP criteria of between $2.00-$4.00 and $8.00-$18.00 These two “Market Pockets” have consistently produced positive results. If the Top Rated selection does not fit the Market Criteria the race is by passed.
Another area that was investigated was the use of the ratings for the various forms of exotics betting.
In the past the performance of the top 6 in the exotics has provided acceptable results.
A review of that has confirmed that performance but again, this can be stream lined.
There are many approaches to trifecta, quinella, exacta and pick 4 betting.
When reviewing the results for exotic betting, field sizes of less than 10 runners are generally not profitable with small fields rarely producing a big dividend.
By only considering fields of 10+ runners, the opportunity of achieving value is greatly enhanced.
A basic test revealed that by using the top 3 Rated Selections to win with the top 5 filling the positions for the exotics from Jan 1st 2009 to 23rd March 2009 produced the following. There were no minimum prices applied, we simply used the ratings irrespective of SP (Starting Price) and this can be calculated without having to monitor the races all day for those that do not wish to “sit all day and watch” with the only filter being that the field must be 10+ starters.
Another option looked at was “boxing” the top 5 rated runners which for the same period produced the following results
The investment is far greater and the bottom line is reduced. As with any form of betting, minimizing risk is the key and in Exotic betting forms, reducing the number of combinations can have a major impact on the POT. (Profit on Turnover)
By applying a filter that will only include runners over $4.00 in the top 3 selections, the strike rate is reduced but the POT is increased supporting the findings that there is little value including short priced runners in the exotics, basically improves strike rate but not the POT in most cases.
This will be very much a personal preference as long losing runs affect all punters in different ways.
A Black Book comment has been included in the Race day sheets, indicated by the
graphic. By hovering the mouse over this graphic, you can view the comment made by our analysis team.
In some races there may be several runners in the race with a BlackBook Comment. These comments do not always apply to runners in highly rated positions. There have been several instances where runners have BlackBook Comments and they have not rated but have won. This will invariably occur as many components of form analysis are factored in before the final ratings are produced.
Our PREVIOUS Standard Betting Strategy
If you prefer to use a standard set of betting rules, then using the strategies outlined below have produced a positive POT in the past. However, if you are prepared to put in the time and effort, the above statistics indicate a more profitable outcome.
Bet Quanities
The major percentage of the total stake to be used for a bet is applied to the runners rated in the Orange Band. The remaining percentage of the total stake to be used for a bet is applied to the Yellow Band runners. Any runners with an equal rating are deemed to share that position in the ratings. The next rating being the number of runners which precede it plus 1.
For example, if the top 3 rated horses have equal ratings then they are deemed to be equal Orange Band runners. If the next rated runner following the top 3 clearly has the 4th best rating on its own, it is deemed to be the sole runner in the Yellow Band. If the next 2 runners following the top 3 are equally rated then they will both be assigned the Yellow Band. We have now assigned our 4th rating so no further runners are considered.
The Price Guidelines
Orange Band runners (displayed with an ORANGE background)
Invest on any of the runners with an Orange Band which are $3.00 (2/1) or better. The Bet Stake for runners with an Orange Band should be divided by the number of runners which meet the qualified Minimum Acceptable Price for the Orange Band (2/1 or better). If any runner is under the Minimum acceptable price, NO INVESTMENT is made on that runner.
Yellow Band runners (displayed with a YELLOW background)
Invest on any of the runners with a Yellow Band which are $16.00 (15/1) or better. The Bet Stake for runners with a Yellow Band should be divided by the number of runners which meet the qualified Minimum Acceptable Price for the Yellow Band. If any runner is under the minimum acceptable price, NO INVESTMENT is made on that runner.
Remember, we recommend that no investments be made on any Orange Band runners UNDER $3.00 and any Yellow Band runners UNDER $16.00
Recommended Staking
The Staking Plan for our SBS is based on using the "PPFA Staker" which is available for FREE if you sign-up for 6 months or more. Alternately, you may purchase the PPFA Staker program. Click here to learn more...
Orange Band
If only Orange Band runners qualify in this race, that is, no Yellows qualify, then bet 100% of the total stake for this bet except when there is only 1 qualified Orange Band runner, then the Orange Band bet is 80% of the total stake for this bet;
If any of the Yellow Band runners qualify, then bet 80% of the total stake for this bet on the price qualified Orange Band runners.
Yellow Band
Bet 20% of the Total Stake for this bet. The maximum investment on the Yellow Band runners is 20% of the Total Stake for this bet.
Betting Examples
Example One
In the above example, using the PPFA Staker to calculate our next bet which is in the amount of $600 the following bets were calculated: As horses 2, 13 and 6 are equal Yellow Band runners, they must be considered to bet on, making a possible 5 horses bet. Firstly, not before 3 minutes from jump, we get the best price available for each of the 5 qualified horses.
Of the Orange Band runners, both horses were better than $3.00 which qualifies them to bet. Of the 3 equal Yellow Band runners, horses #13 & #6 qualified by price as they were both better than $16.00. Horse #2 was under the required $16.00 so was eliminated as a bet. Using the PPFA Staker, set with our preferred percentages, the Orange Band attracted 80% (40% each) and the Yellow Band attracted 20% (10% each). Therefore, the bets placed were;
| Horse #9 | Bet $240 |
|---|---|
| Horse #1 | Bet $240 |
| Horse #13 | Bet $60 |
| Horse #9 | Bet $60 |
Example Two
In the above example, horses #4, #6 and #12 are equal Orange Band runners leaving horse #16 as the sole Yellow Band runner. Again using the PPFA Staker with our preferred settings, The next bet is $1,194. The Orange Band runners are assigned 90% (30% each) and the Yellow Band runner 10%. Therefore, the bets placed were:
| Horse #4 | Bet $358 |
|---|---|
| Horse #6 | Bet $358 |
| Horse #12 | Bet $358 |
| Horse #16 | Bet $119 |
Qualified Maidens
When considering the ratings there will be occasions where Maiden Races are rated as QUALIFIED MAIDENS. These races contain runners that have all previously raced and therefore can still have a rating applied. There have been many instances of good priced winners being rated in the Orange and Yellow Bands in these races.
If you have any further queries, please call STEVEN (Stavros), on 0408 550 722